El desempeño social corporativo como fuerza de mercado: Análisis de su impacto sobre el riesgo de cola y el potencial alcista en el mercado continuo español
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Eduardo Ortas
José M. Moneva
Resumen
Este estudio analiza el impacto del desempeño social corporativo (DSP) y sus subdimensiones (empleo, derechos humanos, comunidades locales, responsabilidad sobre productos) sobre el riesgo de cola y el potencial alcista en el mercado continuo español, durante el periodo 2014-2021. Las métricas de desempeño financiero han sido estimadas mediante simulación historical filtrada, un método semi paramétrico que combina modelos de heterocedasticidad condicional y remuestreo aleatorio con repetición. Esté método permite estimar la distribución empírica de las rentabilidades, considerando sus características principales (i.e., autocorrelación, clústeres de volatilidad y colas pesadas). Los resultados revelan una compleja dependencia temporal entre el DSP y sus subdimensiones y el desempeño financiero, medido por el riesgo de cola y el potencial alcista. Mientras que el DSP reduciría el riesgo de cola a corto plazo, generaría un aumento de la perdida máxima a largo plazo. Asimismo, los resultados no muestran evidencia empírica respecto a una compensación entre la rentabilidad y el riesgo. Finalmente, este estudio subraya la relevancia de analizar el efecto específico de subdimensiones como los derechos humanos o las comunidades locales, dado que parecen conllevar un mayor riesgo de cola y un menor potencial alcista.
Cómo citar
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Desempeño social corporativo, Riesgo bajista, Potencial alcista, Simulación histórica filtrada
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